It's a bank, with
* attempts to dilute NPA% with growing asset TREMENDOUSLY in 2007 -2008
* dividend is 400% of earnings.
* operating in CA, FL, NV, AZ AND MI, yes the holy grail of blight Michigan!!!!.
* analyst can NOT provide positive commentary at best
* is rallying hard but nobody is watching.
* NPA is climbing rapidly in $ basis and adjusting for the less season (age) this is significantly worse than comparable books.
The stock is still rallying hard and I will post what I have as soon as stabilization hits. Maybe tomorrow after some #s from ADP, they usually like to taser the short, even more so than USA who actually loves the short.
FITB :)
ReplyDeleteFITB operates in CA, AZ and NV? Aren't they a mid western bank?
ReplyDeletewith some FL exposure as well
ReplyDeletenot FITB. I am staying quiet until the job report, maybe getting in at even better price.
ReplyDeleteyou think job report won't suck as much as expected?
ReplyDeletecomerica doesn't have branches in las vegas...
ReplyDelete.haha just kidding, they do....
mtg, I'm watching it, now. :D Thanks for some pointers.
ReplyDeleteComerica's dividend 400% of earnings? 0.66 / 0.37 = approx 2. Did you subtract the one time charge of 21c to arrive at 0.66 /(0.37-0.21) = approx 4?
ReplyDeleteWhere do you expect this sucker to land up price wise in Jan 09?
I was NOT thinking of CMA. CMA seems to be a bit too diversified for a reliable short. For something at that price or book level I love ZION.
ReplyDeletePlease focus your efforts in single family lending, and accept commercial lending only if CA/FL/NV element is present. Think something that has fallen 60% and currently experiencing crazy bear market rally. And be patient till the bulls run out of ammo, for all we know both ADP and payroll will be explosive. Not to mention the GDP report.
What do you think of USB, Mr. Spy?
ReplyDeleteit's a WFC-type.
ReplyDeleteare you referring to M&I bank, seems to meet all the criterion
ReplyDeleteI meant as hard as a short play as WFC. Better find easier target.
ReplyDeleteI have to admit that the guys in the room shorting WFC are among the most crack of the troops. They seem to know shomething and don't mind waiting.
Mtgspy,
ReplyDeleteI give up. Waving the white flag here. Will wait for your post exposing this mystery bank.
ADP + 9,000
ReplyDeleteTime to Rally Like a Bull in a China Shop
excellent. As expected ADP come in hot and this should be able to pump things pretty good today. Tomorrow's payroll is more of a function of the weekly claims, which are increasing. You will hope today sufficient # of people are forecasting +ve number tomorrow if you are planning to take a position (with a stop, in case), like me. heheheh.
ReplyDeleteWhen are you planning on revealing the mystery bank in the post?
ReplyDeletedepends on how fast they pump :D
ReplyDeleteNo worry it's still rallying.
mtg, just to check. it's not rallying nearly as much as yesterday, huh? barely moving for the past 15 minutes in fact... of course, if we've found different targets with similar characteristics, all the better. :)
ReplyDeleteThe key here is commercial real estate. They have not been rallying. Once they do and stop, I feel justified that the bulk of it is done and what's left is just the usual low volume pump/bear flags.
ReplyDeletemtg, CRE. we've got the same thing in mind, then. shucks, would have been nice to have 2 shorts. :P
ReplyDeleteIf you want to know what the future of CRE looks like checkout a one-year chart of JLL.
ReplyDelete:)
On a side-note, their HR department knows how to hire "talent"!!! Had drinks a couple weeks ago with a 23 y/o doing tenant-rep leasing there.
WOW! I will send some pics MTG if I get some!
so what is it, please?
ReplyDelete