tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post8431479709973307272..comments2023-11-03T06:07:46.458-07:00Comments on mortgagespy hideout: Analysis of the 20/50 weekly moving average IndicatorBernard Madoff Onlinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12309643975279737386noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-85945614889705169682010-12-21T05:01:48.599-08:002010-12-21T05:01:48.599-08:00Like Wolfman, I use another simple market timing i...Like Wolfman, I use another simple market timing indicator that is doing very well for me. It is based on the patterns in the monthly closing price of a stock market index. It is not only working for the S&P 500 but also for other US and foreign market indices. And it allows me to review just once per month if I buy, sell or hold.Stock Trend Investinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08612834949294660251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-64127117840650939732010-09-08T12:26:23.557-07:002010-09-08T12:26:23.557-07:00looks like it is crossing under again...time to du...looks like it is crossing under again...time to dump stocks?goodluxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06627578117044835157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-13296142417601428812009-09-29T22:59:33.031-07:002009-09-29T22:59:33.031-07:00I have an excellent market timing indicator. It...I have an excellent market timing indicator. It's very simple too. I use the 10 day Exponential moving average and a moving average envelope over the DJIA. The envelope is a 20 EMA and the two lines are 2.5% above and below it. When the "fast" 10 day EMA crosses above the upper envelope line, the market is in a rally and go long, when the 10 crosses under the bottom envelope line go short, because it's in a correction. Most likely bear barket/recession. I checked this back to 1980 on Stockcharts . com (for free) and it avoided EVERY bear market, sidesteped the 87 crash, got out long before the 2008 disaster, and hopped on for every bull market still early in the move. It works and I love it.John Paul Blanchettehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02176511636221127651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-77140017512040941372008-04-21T17:26:00.000-07:002008-04-21T17:26:00.000-07:00Thanks Quads (don!) :DGood to see you here.Thanks Quads (don!) :D<BR/><BR/>Good to see you here.MTGSPYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07211307742618074873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-68163658298963485542008-04-21T16:55:00.000-07:002008-04-21T16:55:00.000-07:00Mtgspy,I have always valued your analysis and insi...Mtgspy,<BR/>I have always valued your analysis and insight.<BR/><BR/>Good Lucky with your new site.<BR/><BR/>Quads4444quads4444https://www.blogger.com/profile/17372048427514880766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-11227583898656694472008-04-21T11:08:00.000-07:002008-04-21T11:08:00.000-07:00sorry didnt get back to u earlier,theory suggests ...sorry didnt get back to u earlier,<BR/><BR/>theory suggests a meandering market like what's in the red box won't reward a 1-month or 2-month (my definition) of short term option, be it call or puts.<BR/><BR/>It's all game of probability.<BR/><BR/>The puts probability of crash has for now imputed to the point that if goes down 50-60 pts on SPX the premium faces a "drag".<BR/><BR/>The calls aside from obviously at the end of a BIG rally of 150 pts is running out of space and it seems like can only lose money. Also, from here on, the more it goes up, severe imputation of probability going further up, just as in the case of the puts.<BR/><BR/>Put it this way, either choice <BR/><BR/>a) buying very OTM options 29 cents with risk it turns to 35c or 0c<BR/>or<BR/>b) buying close to ATM $3.15 option in the hope to turn it into $25c or $5.20 in the next month.<BR/><BR/>IS NOT attractive. Those numbers are only for your consideration. I factored in the implied volatility, the "imputation" of probability (aka mean reversion) into the pricing of those scenarios.<BR/><BR/>Hope that helps.MTGSPYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07211307742618074873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-91058408564266285232008-04-21T06:59:00.000-07:002008-04-21T06:59:00.000-07:00How do you define long term for put/call options? ...How do you define long term for put/call options? 6 to 9 months out or more like out to Dec 2009?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565755785971263071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-45123834958610503202008-04-21T06:56:00.000-07:002008-04-21T06:56:00.000-07:00Does this work for the 87 crash? I think that is o...Does this work for the 87 crash? I think that is only instance where this 20/50 crossover would fail. Unfortunately my broker's charts doesn't go back that far to test it.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565755785971263071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-78435169081213911392008-04-20T14:42:00.000-07:002008-04-20T14:42:00.000-07:00What I am trying get at is based on the 20/50 indi...What I am trying get at is based on the 20/50 indicator alone, how do to reach the conclusion that short term puts are unlikely to pay off?<BR/><BR/>If you made that statement based on some other factors, that is fine. However, if that conclusion was reached solely on the basis of the 20/50 indicator, I will appreciate it if you can shed more light on itdvs112https://www.blogger.com/profile/15899165063289557457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-47893695373830201372008-04-20T13:34:00.000-07:002008-04-20T13:34:00.000-07:00high likelihood it won't payoff. And also think ab...high likelihood it won't payoff. And also think about the implied volatility at market "bottoms" (not saying this is at all) - IV is typically highest there. <BR/><BR/>Therefore there's usually limited amount of money to be made from out of the money short term options given the entry cost is high enough to curtail leverage. <BR/><BR/>The 10-bagger of yesteryear is discounted out of the market.MTGSPYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07211307742618074873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4682504039394116318.post-82088895929274158632008-04-20T13:24:00.000-07:002008-04-20T13:24:00.000-07:00After reading your article, I cannot follow your c...After reading your article, I cannot follow your chain of thought. <BR/><BR/>Based on the indicator, why do you feel buying short term puts is going to be a disaster?dvs112https://www.blogger.com/profile/15899165063289557457noreply@blogger.com