2007:
"My view is that the evidence is overwhelming that most people are too risk averse. And that therefore they should be taking a lot more risk than they feel like is right. "
2009:
" The problem with credit is that it is far too expensive to make
it economic to use it to grow. With investment grade debt
having yields greater than the growth rate of nominal GDP,
the cost of new debt in the system exceeds the ability to earn
enough to pay for it. Hence, the deleveraging going on. The
government on the other hand, can borrow at half the growth
rate of nominal GDP, and hence, it is the government that
will, and should, borrow aggressively to invest in the country’s
future.
All of this was explained a generation ago by Keynes when
we last had a crisis like this, and anyone seeking to
understand it should either go to the source, or to the second
volume of Robert Skidelsky’s monumental three-volume
biography.
I remain optimistic that the new administration, which is
staffed with first rate financial talent, coupled with the Fed,"
"My view is that the evidence is overwhelming that most people are too risk averse. And that therefore they should be taking a lot more risk than they feel like is right. "
2009:
" The problem with credit is that it is far too expensive to make
it economic to use it to grow. With investment grade debt
having yields greater than the growth rate of nominal GDP,
the cost of new debt in the system exceeds the ability to earn
enough to pay for it. Hence, the deleveraging going on. The
government on the other hand, can borrow at half the growth
rate of nominal GDP, and hence, it is the government that
will, and should, borrow aggressively to invest in the country’s
future.
All of this was explained a generation ago by Keynes when
we last had a crisis like this, and anyone seeking to
understand it should either go to the source, or to the second
volume of Robert Skidelsky’s monumental three-volume
biography.
I remain optimistic that the new administration, which is
staffed with first rate financial talent, coupled with the Fed,"
The point:
The 2009 post is identical to the psychobabbles you have been hearing recently from everyone in the government and "analysts" on TVs.
Having not lived 1929 nor trust anyone including unknown financial bloggers, you began to have doubt, hope, uncertainty: could it really be the magic bullet? Print $1 and get $1.64 back?
There is only probabilities regarding the truth, the best a statistician can do is to look for OBSERVEABLE events that correlates very well with the answer you are seeking. Thus the photo and quote from 2007. :)
2 comments:
Mtgspy, does this all remind you at all of the movie, "Zulu"?
almost like Madmax but everybody's heart got ripped out sacrificed over some indian temple.
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