Friday, October 31, 2008

If FX is the trigger, then

this chart suggests we're not there yet. Election = market cops will be out in force? It's in fact what I would do if I were running Ben, I mean Fed. (Ben is independent, nobody is running him :D)

I really think we dodged a bullet today.

I went to bed at 1:30 am, and was convinced everything will be OK, afterall Yen was 98.5+, there was a rate cut, AUD 67.4+ and climbing and futures were recovering.

Woke up this morning and all the colors were flipped. That after all the rhetorics and CAPS yesterday was an absolute shock. It sends shivers up my spine so badly I actually felt dizzy.

It does look like PPT was feeling EXACTLY the same and was on "overdrive" mode this morning. "They" have to stabilize the money flow right here and now. And the way to do that is none other than unlimited currency swap, moral hazard be damned. I am fully aware of what the strength in USD at this rate would do to the "hard industry" in america (as opposed to the paper industry). Anyone with any amount of self preservation instinct would not stop at anything to protect those from liquidity issues. I would absolutely give away USD for free just to prevent that from collapsing, or I'd really have an unsolveable problem in my hands, if I were Ben.

"Gary Rosenberger's monthly survey of placement industry executives, not surprisingly, found pervasive weakness. Firms are sitting on their hands in terms of hiring, and placement agencies are seeing floods of resumes coming in, as the pool of jobseekers balloons. The tone of the comments ranged from 'bad but surprised it's not even worse' to 'disaster.' There seemed to be some degree of variance on whether contacts had felt the full brunt of the credit crunch/economic slowdown yet. Some had just started to see worsening over the past week or so, while others have been suffering since September. In a sign of the times, several contacts talked about their concerns of whether their customers (employers) would pay their bills.

The negative tone of Gary's piece is of course no great surprise, as it is exceedingly clear that the economy is as weak as it has been in a generation. The only pertinent question seems to be just how bad the payroll data can be. RBSGC looks for a 220,000 job loss for October, and declines at least that large if not bigger in November/December. At this point, our expectations are sufficiently low, that not much could surprise us on the downside."

Thursday, October 30, 2008

MIDNIGHT OCT 30 ULTIMATUM: I like playing BOTH BULL and BEAR Markets

Washington DC, 12AM, 10/30/2008:





Mtgspy, Your Humble Servant

Stop Trading.

Now I didn't learn that from Mad Money.

The last bout of insanity was due to USD scarcity and the news is that Ben committing INFINITE USD swap ANYTIME ANYWHERE ANYONE asked.

Since currency = politics, AND we have PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION on Tuesday: I strongly suggest not to take any sizeable short position and especially avoid shorting those AsPac/LatAm currencies and maybe even going long there for at least a week. Not a good sign shorting those currencies because technicals just don't look like it and fundamentals CERTAINLY against it. Those who shorted congratulations and now please get out of DODGE before the sherriffs come and get you.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

You don't know what you got till it's gone.

That's not just a lyrics from

Here's what you need to read and understand to the core, see where it's right and where it could also be wrong and in your mind give the probability of being right. If that scale is above 50% right, then you can't get what you lose (50% so far as measured by the indices) by going in even more than you already have. Deflation does not call anyone friend. Brand that word over your forehead if need be.

The game then, is to understand credit market, and use every opportunity to hammer on individual companies that get swept UP in a rally (like AXP, heheheh) and short the f* out of it EVERY single time until it's zero.

Here's something you can keep as a screensaver in case you keep forgetting/needing motivation, and enjoy the rest of the day. I know I will :)

Sunday, October 26, 2008

New info from FX dealer friend (small biz)

Overflow order from big dealers, 14x avg USD market order at open - biz is in HK, Sing, India.
The numbers to watch are 0.5x, 1x (normal), 10x, 100x. Once it passes third base it always score fourth. Never failed. Don't short USD here. Do it at 100x - will update in two-three weeks or so. Watch Citadel blow up. I suspect (east) european Convertible in the books. This will be historical moment when Fed backstops the entire European and hedgefunds universe, in addition to de-facto eventual back of FHLB this week/next. Legendary deleveraging here.

Edit #1: Still on currency, based on this article I think I have nailed pretty solid where FXA bottom is going to be, which I believe about $12 - 15.

Australia bans word 'drought' as too upsetting for farmers
The word "drought" makes farmers feel depressed and should be replaced with "dryness", a panel of Australian government experts has said.

By Bonnie Malkin in Sydney
Last Updated: 11:47AM BST 23 Oct 2008

The group also warned farmers to get used to the lack of rain because dry conditions are expected to continue.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Another secret I want to share:

The "better" the asset is perceived by management, the less capital relative to a stressful outcome that company has.


American Express. NYSE: AXP.

Yes, run.

Still here?

Ok, name TWO companies that have had that "mindset"?

Hint: Their names both begin with an F.


Three rings for the elves.
Five rings for the dwarves.
Nine rings to rule the men.

Well, let's cut to the chase. I have reason to believe that the "men" are FHLB governors and all of them are meeting with Bernanke asking him to guarantee $1.5T of FHLB advances/papers etc. See what happens to you Ben when you started handing out "rings"?

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Coffee AND Artillery Shells in the morning.

I have been slugging it out with Bear C, who taught me all I knew for years, and now have come to a slight disagreement on how to view things.

Maybe y'all can read it and point out all the flaws in both arguments. Keep in mind the these differences are not "light". They either take you to the left or the right. Your choice.


From: Bear C
Sent: Wed 10/22/2008 3:12 PM
Subject: triumph of reason over chaos?

Going back to 1978, I obtain the total market capitalization of the russel 3000, which represents around 98% of public companies today (back in 1978, fewer percent of total GDP came from public companies, but that doesn't really change the moral of the story). Then I obtain the nominal GDP in dollars.
Finally, I take the ratio of market cap to GDP. This is a proxy of the ultimate Price/Sales ratio, of the economy as a whole. That is on the x-axis. On the y-axis is the subsequent 3-yr return of the Russel 3k. Note that once the ratio has fallen below 1, not even once has the 3-yr return been negative (it improves a lot if you look at the 5-yr ratio, but you get a little less data). Today the ratio is about 0.77 (assuming the Q4 GDP nominal is the same as Q2 which probably implies a real contraction of 2% for the remainder of the year).

Sent: Wed 10/22/2008 4:35 PM
To: Bear C
Subject: triumph of reason over chaos?

You cannot take this ratio when the next $ of borrowing (I assume govt = corporate for now so don't distinguish public vs. private - actually that's the reality huh?) create negative GDP - of course all of this is forward looking. At that point the ratio analysis cannot be used, kinda the same way when P/E dips to negative.

From: Bear C
Sent: Wed 10/22/2008 5:17 PM
Subject: triumph of reason over chaos?

How does the next $ of borrowing create negative GDP growth? Even if you took it and just spent it on coffees for the whole country, it wouldn't be negative.
Look at the governments funding rate...the whole world is willing to send their money this way at a nominal 3.60% for 10 years. All you need to do is generate 2% inflation and 1.6% growth and have a GDP multiplier from fiscal stimulus of 1 (which is absurdly low) or more. Multipliers from fiscal stimulus spent on employment benefits, for example, would be on the order of 2 or more; from infrastructure that the country already needs anyway, it might be significantly higher (and longer lived). The US government is like a company that can borrow at 3.6% and whose intake is a larger and larger share of GDP the faster it grows (because of the way the tax code/brackets work). You would need a 10-year treasury rate above 6% before I'd be at all concerned about the argument breaking down.

Sent: Wed 10/23/2008 8:35 AM
To: Bear C
Subject: triumph of reason over chaos?

Ok, so the afternoon cocktail started early yesterday and I didn't really address the question. But after reading the question about the -ve marginal GDP response to new $ in debt and the response were quoting RATES, I was thinking again, wow, is this not an attempt to flame me rather dan debate honestly?

Let's say I give you $10M, no, make it smaller, like $1M, can I task you given an interest rate out there (which are all higher than what you said) make more money than what I have to pay out, given the forward looking? Believe me, you won't and this is coming from a guy who ran a small business with 100% equity. The debt market is oversized relative to the natural capital formation ability (read: supply of worth asset to buy/invest in) and the probability of on average making a positive return from borrowing is zero.

You will need a washout, not just in stock price, but in a complete meltdown of employment and uncompetitive factory shutdowns before you have a basis to borrow profitably. I know what you say next is aha that's the average, I am talking about the government who borrowed X% lower than the private sector and therefore they will channel that to utilities and make a ton of money. The key is not in the rates and amounts this time, it's in the people. Read: FRE and FNM. How did that go? Government is not the best allocator of resources, because it is either run by Peter or Paul. Dig?

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Could have gotten lunch instead of coffee, oh well ... :)

Look at the highlighted section(s) for the leading and concurrent indicators.

You mean "staple" production chain like JNJ was NOT a good buy? Then you should have cashed the 55 Calls yesterday. :)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October
General Business Activity

New Orders
Prices Paid

Prices Received


Retail and Food Services Sales for September (%ch)
Retail Sales --

Ex. Autos
MV and Parts Dealers
Building Matl., Garden, Hardware
Furniture and Home Furnishings
Electronics and Appliance
General Merchandise
Clothing and Accessories
Food and Beverage Stores


Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Beware of Fakes.

The REAL one says target is 562.

Stay short and strong.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Fast forward to 3:42 - 3:55

"No nation will have any gain driving down the fortunes of another"

Who the hell was he talking to? What was he referring to?

"This time it's different" at 4:06. Different to what? [evilgrin]


Saturday, October 11, 2008

Why it does NOT pay to be a Prophet of Doom.

Think about it. Every single one of the Prophet of Doom turned out to be false or very ill-intentioned, crazy religious loons of some sort who just coveted young pretty underage girls. Really.

So why am I predicting riots, posting an e-mail about commerce seizing up, and credit goes away, civilization at risk? This is NOT professional. You trade, and only trade.

Yes, but you would leave something out.

Trade the tape you get.

What is the current tape?

(Let me get to that after I go out tonight- what little scientific knowledge that I have at this point is NO USE, just to give you a hint. Later.)

There's just no credit out there, man. Thanks to 10 years of supercharged fraudulent lending/insurance. Tapped out. There are two types of insurance out there: One is where you can insure yourself, and two is where you have a chain of people who either passed the bucket along a straight line down to the dumbest/poorest insurer who insure EVERYONE, or one that goes circular where A insures B, B insures C, and C insures A.

A total shitshow.

What was then the fuzz about covering the shorts, like why did I cover Wamu shorts about 20% each time that went south $5 back in the days? I was sure of my numbers, I can read prices correctly, and based off that Wamu is 3x underwater by equity - so why did I cover?

Again, the fear is that all of us with brain saw that this is a crazy inverted pyramid that has been around for all we know, ages. It defies physics and sometimes it shook, but it always, ALWAYS killed anyone who doubted the inverted pyramid's ability to make money. What use was it then, being right, when in the end you will almost certainly get killed fighting the pyramid?

Then it started to change. The inverted pyramid started swinging with larger and larger amplitudes with every failures the whole scam apparently was unmasked. The difference THIS TIME is that somehow the world REJECTED to stand by and continue the scam.


Other than that's the right thing to do in the first place, I don't yet have any explanation. Maybe it was the critical mass. Maybe there's just too many rats leaking balance sheet to investors from inside the company masking as bloggers. Maybe it was never a secret. Maybe everyone is fed up and wanted a non-finance based economy.

This sort of changes are sweeping. Big hurt came to countries that experienced these changes in the past decades/centuries and mass violence was almost guaranteed. The risk of a total meltdown was always 0% in the last 100 years, and then last week it was 1%, and now I personally feel it's about even odds.

Again, I wish we can just accept the frauds as a fact of life and increase the size of the pyramids instead of toppling it. I really am not being cynical here. There was nothing wrong with inverted pyramid for a looooooong time other than being unsightly and immoral. It will be a monumental task to understand why this time it's different, and that was the basis of calling a social unrest and indices going to zero, which happens when "this time it's different".

I have no problem with being wrong, no problem at all. But I will just trade the tape I get.

A Lunatic's raving:

This is an e-mail I just got from the guy who showed me the rope from doing the first simple calculation in mortgage maths back in the days when I first signed up in the business - he's out there running his own fund now. It's clear people are watching closely this weekend and the scary thing is they are like wolves watching a pack of sheep from the treeline. They already know the outcome and this was a bait.

Man, this is getting exciting.

Re:Re: how's it going‏
From: CrazyMan

Sent:Sat 10/11/08 6:32 PM

"You have no idea what's in here right now.

It is beyond the number of digits in your calculator and the world economy cannot get outta this.

There was a bait and Bush took it and have all these meetings this weekend. This one will be tried, will fail, and with it all the confidence in the world to leaders, religions, and anything, and all-out collapse.

This is a taboo subject and just unconsciously embedded in our genetic, to be suppressed by relentless training we called school and religion and then when the primal reality is released the risk is not something you can even begin to understand.

I know this would classify me on the same boat as most lunatics but if this happens would that still matter if I were or weren't? "

A way of thinking that will DESTROY YOU:

If Bear Stearns fails, we are gonna have more to worry about than our "money".

If Lehman fails, we are gonna have more to worry about than our "money".

If Freddie fails, we are gonna have more to worry about than our "money".

If Fannie fails, we are gonna have more to worry about than our "money".

If Banks fails, we are gonna have more to worry about than our "money".

If GE fails, we are gonna have more to worry about than our "money".

If USA fails, we are gonna have more to worry about than our "money".

The truth is you get a pound of meat taken away from you each time?

Guys saying things like that are either

a) dumb J6P
b) mischievous individuals like me who at random times mislead people in category a).

The truth is, let's say in the end it's just you and me who survived and there's nothing to eat cuz the world is "over", I would love to hang around a couple more weeks and I will need "food", heheheheheh.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Attention: Bulls and Bears.

Please go buy all the stocks you can. Even if you lose a boatload today, it's okay.

Consider the alternative. You potentially will have to face me in a street fighting, house-to-house combat this weekend. Now why don't we want that? Because I need to take a break and chill.

Now we can work together. I want to count my money. You want to go and cry.

It's a great combo and we can help each other. When you are buying, make sure you chant "USA, USA, USA" to increase your fervor.

Easy 40k in 2 minute: Limit buy DDM at 29, out at 31. Baa baa booya.
Let's see if the rest of the day's gonna be easy(er)?

Q: what's the 2 week ending value of FXA?
a. 65
b. 55
c. 45
d. I lack imagination.

q: maybe I should bail outta SSO 27+ at 30+ at this point. I am not a the greatest momo trader out there. These things should be good for a downpayment on a brothel later on.

q: still watching FXA. this thing doesnt have a bottom and I thought "down under" is a kind "bottom" hehehehe

q: Poster Rjazz in TF opined on my post of "I bot IF at 4.97 and bailed at 5.20 for coffee money, and now I think it'll open sub $1" by saying "I wouldn't invest in Indonesia as it's crawling with muslims. I hate it". This gets my neuron firing different way that perhaps I should be embracing islam to fade this guy as I do think when poverty started climbing up islam gains popularity. AND they have that public execution thing in the market. Again, just a quiet morning reflection, and no this blog is not a masquarading islam recruitment squad, thanks FBI. Public execution in the market hahahaha. Dick fuld beheaded in NYSE opening. ahhahahahahah.

q: BRK/A has a lot to fall. Assume $5k earnings with a more "generous" multiple than SPX at 900 (18x) you get $90k at most. But 18x multiple is a pipe dream that only the best bloggers can dream of so I'd give a 15x max - fairvalue vs 900 SPX should about $75-80k, We'll see.

q: had a bad feeling and decided to forget about FXA. I don't know what the "bottom" is for down-under.

A copy of today's sermon

There WILL be a future for USA.

Well, actually, what I meant to say is there WILL be a future for me. I have started cashing out at the today's lows again and I intend to start cashing out my substantial chips, send to my bank, and then cash out before they confiscated it - a risk I can no longer tolerate at this point.

For those expecting a rocket ride, consider what happens if it just stays right here with equal supply and demand cuz saying you buy stocks at 18 P/E is NOTHING to BRAG ABOUT. It's GONNA FIZZLE and STAY HERE FOR A LONG LONG TIME. Is that a RISK you like while the government might come in and loot you?

For those who has been LONG, here is my take, someone is GUILTY, and you know it. I don't care how, you have to take care of that problem. You have been deceived, and you are angry, and you know who the culprit is, and you want to punish him/her. Your judgment is supreme.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Email about Buffett:


I just heard that Warren Buffett died last week. There was NO succession plan, and the person you see right now is a doppleganger named Albert Krause, a very little known Dutch/German porn actor. It is very likely that the official death will be a year from now when they found a suitable successor, but it is obvious to me that a porn star as a temp successor is not going to be well received by investors at this juncture. Thank you and God Bless. May the Lord bless your path in eradicating Bullish deviants that is 99% of our population."

Well, I don't think so either (about Albert's appointment).

Ok, well, I think this is not exactly what I call Grade-A news, but then again I don't have any idea to prove/disprove it. Maybe you do.



Every "Book" is currently in a run-off mode.

If you happen to be studying Finance/Quantitative Finance/Statistics/MBA with the hope of making the big bucks in this ponzi scheme, please report to your school administration and ADMINISTER JUSTICE. You just lost 100K + foregone earnings opportunity and associate exclusively with fellow DOOFUS like yourselves.

You must be angry by now. Very angry.

Yes, that is correct. Please express yourself by demonstrating demanding your tuition to be refunded and your schools be closed for fraud.

You are a victim.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Many were upset with me due to my "Riot" calls

Because it does not look likely it will happen in this down move and likely have to wait several weeks. They paid good money for the show and it's now gonna have to be a rain check.

I agree, ok, so there's your 20% rally coming right up.

But let's use the time productively, by mapping each city burning with the corresponding Dow level, I am consulting my LTV chart overlaid and proprietary "colored" chart on top of US map here and I believe it should work like this:

8500 - Compton + LA
8499 - Central Valley + Las Vegas
8250 - Miami/NYC
7600 - Baltimore/NJ/Southeast DC

Unfortunately I don't really have a good time frame for the numbers on the left column as you have your own trusted blogs to get those from, but once you do, you may plan your vacation accordingly.

Of course there IS a point in the left column that you may want to buy one way tickets for reasons that I don't have to explain. It's usually cheaper that way too.

Edit #1 : I think we'll get a riot tomorrow. Yes, (sigh) this is another crash call after the one I make yesterday which likely burn both bears and bulls today. This cornholing looks like gonna be epic.

Federal Reserve
Target Rate
Prime Rate4.505.
1-Month Libor4.292.492.462.725.12
3-Month Libor4.522.822.792.715.25

NASD/Bloomberg Investment Grade U.S. Corporate Bond Index

Avg Redemption Yld8.560.334.0517:22
Totl Rtn Index117.89-1.48-1.2417:22

Suggestion to "traders" with 95.0 target + a rally to Dec 115.0

Now it's 97.5. MUST you get that 2.5 extra, I mean SPY 95?

Ok, you are lucky I am looking out for you.

1. Buy SPY here
2. Sell a 115 Dec call at $2.

What would I do at this point?

None of the above. :)


Ok, to get that back you and to avoid destruction of USA ( I mean up to secession - riot is a given at this point ) is to hang the following individuals publicly and strip their immediate family of their wealth. This is just for starters but may be enough for Season 1 on Fox.

Mozillo + 10 honchos
Dick Fuld + 10 honchos
Dick Syron + 20 honchos
Daniel Mudd + 20 honchos
Lanty + 100 honchos
Chuck Prince + 350 honchos
Mike Perry + his dog
Rubin + Paulson + Ben + all the staffs not under Federal grade including the bald headed Indian geenie Paulson just hired.
Killinger + Wamu board + 40 randomly selected executives.
Karl Icahn + Jeffrey Gendell - for being dumb and obnoxious
Bill Miller - for adultery
Jamie Dimon - for robbing the taxpayer.

Submit your request to the comment section so I can forward it to Fox entertainment.

What's the name of the game here?

Short to Zero


Fade the first move


IT Bottom, buy buy buy.


Having absolutely no idea which one I just "simulate the vote" out there.

2 out of 3 against me. I am out and went on buying some individual stocks instead.

Yes, that's it. Just go short some indices and go long something "better".

Edit 2: incredibly fast market. It almost looks like EVERY soldier in this battlefield carries a portable nuke cannon. Just incredible.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Thomas Jefferson used to say:

Joe6Packs are made for one thing: Slaughter.

Well, maybe someone else said that.

Yes, it may be Conan the Barbarian but my memory is not very good lately.

401k-ers: Warning.

Pull out everything.

You will have 10% more tomorrow.

No, this is not a drill.

I will not be going to Valhalla.

Because I could not show ANY stock that I have managed to short to zero.

I got pretty close on ABK, but it didn't die and I covered at $7-8
I chickened out and covered my last put of WCI at $1.20
Now I covered GGP at 7.50, and it's gonna go to zero.


I will short QLD to Zero.

See you there.

Crossing the rubicon & aftermath of 1st day

yes, I am talking about the Unsecured lending facility (Government SIV).

Out of yesterday's TAF 150B limit, 138B was bid. No eligible collateral left.

This one was a DOA.

REALLY Bad News abound today.

Several pointers from conference call early am:

1. Counterparty is very concerned about UK banks. VERY as in thinking of not even having overnight line anymore with them. Everyone not in counterparty was literally stunned to hear about this because this story just wasn't there yesterday. What is happening here? Ominuous looking cloud. I would also like to hear more about Barclays should anybody know anything.

2. The other thing from repo desk, maybe minor but it sounds like it might have a lasting effect, is that the Fed paying interest on reserves, looks to me like banks might be sending cash the Fed's way instead of to each other. I am not sure if the effect is going to be minor, but even if it is, that is NOT positive.

3. Everyone is also not feeling well after American Express came out with their 8-k explaining how much money they have. This is NOT a positive story, in fact could be very negative in the near term.

I got out from several long positions with about $20 loss this morning. Yes, twenty bucks. I will sit this out in cash.

The first rule of war is to understand your enemy and at this point I have close to NONE. So there will be NO war today. In time this will be proven the right move.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Warning: Civil unrest ahead.

Check this story out:

Look at the picture in that page. Carefully.

as i was saying.... beware of yourself. You may/will gun down somebody in the future. That I am sure of.

The house is in gated community and appeared expensive, there are 2 suv, one lexus and another massive yukon?

He coulda sold a lot of things first and cut on consumption but he rather offed his family first before his consumption.

I know it. I am a math whiz mortgage modeling expert with psychic gift to understand consumer behaviors - believe it or not. This trend will continue and got worse.

Cutting consumption is NOT an option for Amerikans - as one of the more naive, yet brilliant thinkers, out there suggested in one of the email exchange I had two posts ago in this page. This is like asking a japanese samurai from the 12 th century to surrender. The difference is, the US samurai would shoot up his family first before selling his Lexus.

You have been warned. You may do the same.


All of it. 1:51 pm EST. What was this, 2000 pts dow straight down? :D
There just will have to be a retest later.

Friday, October 3, 2008


Part 2:

Psst ...

If you cover when Ben gives you 50 bps, then Ben and I will take away your puts and shorts.

That is all, dismissed.

I am posting exchanges with the Shorting Guru:

This man introduced me to the Joy of Shorting back in the days. His record is impeccable. I think some of our recent discussion could benefit the readers of this blog should they want to be on the offensive or defensive part of the riot. You know where I stand :D

To Guru

I never forgot what people said, for example, Ben said in Harvard graduation speech last year: "We will not have a GD2 because I am a smart guy who studied and understand the cause of it." He might, I don't know, but it's fair to say he does and I won't argue with you. The problem is this: It's the wrong model.

The more correct dynamics is modeled in 1998 Indonesia/Thai/Russia issue, and for USA it's much closer to the Indonesia case. That's why my spines are tingling. This particular virus does look like flu when it's in fact ebola. The DNA for this strain can be read in:

And it's nothing new to me.

From Guru

I agree the GD is a bad model, but none of the crises you mentioned were accompanied by a strengthening of the crisis countries currency.Explain that one professor mtgspy...I don't think there is a good model, you just have to think thru each of the particulars, eg sector by sector and their interactions...

To Guru

Well the forward looking part of the model looks good; this is just like that LTV-driven prepayment speed we invented in 2005 that nobody liked until it happens.

"In New York's Tompkins Square in 1874, police entered the crowd with clubs and beat up thousands of men and women. The most violent strikes in American history followed the panic, including by the secret labor group known as the Molly Maguires in Pennsylvania's coal fields in 1875, when masked workmen exchanged gunfire with the "Coal and Iron Police," a private force commissioned by the state. A nationwide railroad strike followed in 1877, in which mobs destroyed railway hubs in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Cumberland, Md."

From Guru

A 10 pct reduction in GDP in those days meant cutting out things like eggs/meat from your diet, buying no clothes that year...a 10 reduction now means buying 9 outfits instead of 10, making imported coffee at home instead of at sbux, drinking beer at home instead of at a bar. Its quite easy to cut the top 10 pct of consumption for about 80 pct of house holds now without any real effect on actual quality of life. The bottom 20 pcts 10 pct cut will be financed by increasing taxes on the top 5 pct.That's how we'll get back to a 10 pct savings rate, and it might even not involve an outright 10 pct contraction but relative to a 2 pct per year trend growth over 3-4 yrs.

(PS: Actually I was reading that last e-mail and laughed at this very level-headed, albeit very correct approach it's very naive. In my opinion someone would smash a molotov cocktail on the back of my head first before 10% spending cuts would be the average nationwide. Heh).

Thursday, October 2, 2008

National Treasure III: The Debt of Zhang

This could be a script for a blockbuster: Nicholas Cage and his lackeys f* around in a dungeon and found a manuscript torn straight out of the constitution paper that says a person by the name Zhang owed George Washington 5 shillings for losing a bet on an indian canoe race, to be compounded at 2% monthly interest rate since 1789.

This is then, as the groupies later assert in the happy ending of the movie, the proof positive that USA has the legal right to borrow as much money as it wants and enslave china for eternity, and once more the world is saved.

C'mon people. Why haven't anyone sacked Ben and Paulson yet, or better the rest of them congress?

Consider this sentence:

"If you dont work, then I won't pay"

that makes sense right?


"If you don't pay your loan, I won't lend you more money?"

How the F* does that compute? Why would you want to give more money to someone who showed the intent and ability to renege on his obligation in the first place?

This is a collosal joke.


IF you mention "Tradeable Bottom" again.

Those are meaningless.

Do you want to go LONG into Mad Max praying for a grinding up bull market that suddenly appears because people like bankrupt nation all of a sudden?

Do you say you know when to get off and on every 5% up and down perfectly for 20 years like in Japan? Assuming I was wrong about the riots and this becomes Japan because the Martians would like to carry trade with us?

This is the same bullshit that leads to other meaningless words such as "Ownership Society".

I will consider you a big fat GAY if you say that.

The only words that can be said here is "ALL IN SHORT". Don't be a pussy.