Friday, October 10, 2008

Attention: Bulls and Bears.

Please go buy all the stocks you can. Even if you lose a boatload today, it's okay.

Consider the alternative. You potentially will have to face me in a street fighting, house-to-house combat this weekend. Now why don't we want that? Because I need to take a break and chill.

Now we can work together. I want to count my money. You want to go and cry.

It's a great combo and we can help each other. When you are buying, make sure you chant "USA, USA, USA" to increase your fervor.

Easy 40k in 2 minute: Limit buy DDM at 29, out at 31. Baa baa booya.
Let's see if the rest of the day's gonna be easy(er)?

Q: what's the 2 week ending value of FXA?
a. 65
b. 55
c. 45
d. I lack imagination.

q: maybe I should bail outta SSO 27+ at 30+ at this point. I am not a the greatest momo trader out there. These things should be good for a downpayment on a brothel later on.

q: still watching FXA. this thing doesnt have a bottom and I thought "down under" is a kind "bottom" hehehehe

q: Poster Rjazz in TF opined on my post of "I bot IF at 4.97 and bailed at 5.20 for coffee money, and now I think it'll open sub $1" by saying "I wouldn't invest in Indonesia as it's crawling with muslims. I hate it". This gets my neuron firing different way that perhaps I should be embracing islam to fade this guy as I do think when poverty started climbing up islam gains popularity. AND they have that public execution thing in the market. Again, just a quiet morning reflection, and no this blog is not a masquarading islam recruitment squad, thanks FBI. Public execution in the market hahahaha. Dick fuld beheaded in NYSE opening. ahhahahahahah.

q: BRK/A has a lot to fall. Assume $5k earnings with a more "generous" multiple than SPX at 900 (18x) you get $90k at most. But 18x multiple is a pipe dream that only the best bloggers can dream of so I'd give a 15x max - fairvalue vs 900 SPX should about $75-80k, We'll see.

q: had a bad feeling and decided to forget about FXA. I don't know what the "bottom" is for down-under.

18 comments:

jpick said...

damn, locked out of TF

that is an epic Rjazz post...

moment of truth, do we test 870...865...850...when does one bail on the long! AAAHHHHH, we're all gonna die!

MTGSPY said...

relax. Both buyers and sellers are panicked people today / super greedy. The true price (when there's no crazy HF leverage out there) is more like 600 on SPX. That is subject to debate and that's what's the stock market is doing.

jpick said...

yeah, but what if we hit 1200 in the interim...s&p can go to 400 for all I care on wave 5 afterwards :).

anymore epic TF posts, or are you locked out as well?

MTGSPY said...

JPIck,

You are now the ONE.

The ONE who will bring the Daily Crash Call, remember?

heheheh.

jpick said...

yes, but only if GA allows admittance into his domain!

jpick said...

save me attila!!!! AAAAHHHHHH *splat*

:) that kinda counts as a crash call.

the preliminary lehman auctions do have me a little spooked, tbh.

MTGSPY said...

GA is a jittery guy by nature and made more so by things he's never seen before, so he's very excitable right now.

Generally he's right and I get enough information all lines to other banks (not just barclays this time) is severed. My company is hunkering down like never in its entire history. No cash leaving the vault. Literally.

Angers were mounting to see Prime rate under Libor 3M, and this is from the CEO, 2 days after I mentioned it. People sure took a lot of time to digest things.

jpick said...

what's with the Overnight, though?

you'd think if there was some credence to the rumored bank failures that are floating about, then that wouldn't have dropped, or was that just the amount of liquidity in the system finally overpowered the fear on the shortest of time frames?

MTGSPY said...

I swap to monthly or quarterly.

These overnights are for repos and it's part of the cramdown.

1. it will blow out again.
2. lenders don't care.

Penn said...

They have a circus going on at Atilla's blog

That man is a great trader, no doubt. However, some of the guys following him are leveraged to the hilt. God help them when Atilla has his firs miss.

Are you long by any chance or are you sticking to your everyday crash call till the LIBOR-PRIME discrepancy resolves itself?

MTGSPY said...

yes. crash every day. beware of street performers.

jpick said...

attila has to be wrong soon (though it has been great as I have been on the same side of him for a while), just because he now has people who two days ago didn't know what /es stood for, now they are trading with leverage (they claim at least, I don't even know if they are sure what leverage means) and making huge money with no drawdowns just following his calls with a lag of course...normally market karma says those people will lose their money soon, and since he is calling for a multi-month rally, hence your crash call will overwhelm his rally call...and there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth on attila's blog ;)

jpick said...

on a serious note, keep us posted on the swap desk/counterparty front line chatter...at least stuff we don't already know from published libor, hehe.

cheers

gtt said...

I'm sure Atilla has stops set by now. By the time the sheeple have realized he posted "stopped out at 860" they'll be cooked.

Yes, keep us posted spy, I am long SSO and QLD now trying to figure out how tight to set my stops.

MTGSPY said...

Those aren't chatters.

The counterparty desk has cut off all UK lines. ALL of it. And they asked me if I knew anyone to hire, a fullset from junior the the head of another desk. It's like a fullblown war.

Next in line, 4th day in the USA that money does not flow. Guys, this is just like when someone got a stroke and depending on how long the brain is without blood circulation he can expect to be dead or paralyzed or worse.

This damage is PERMANENT and you guys never considered the most likely scenario under your nose, that like other investments the discount rate on the equity has gone irreversibly up to this point and will not come back, you need to come to grip to that.

You all need to go back to some kind of more reliable measuring stick before investing anything. Those guys have nothing to lose other than 3, 5, 10K? These have no skin in the game and treat those money as if they are Las vegas money.

Now when you deal with your personal wealth with primary goal of securing its buying power and secondary wealth of looting as much as you can in the way down to zero, it's totally different story and the only one who will get you f*ed upside down is yourself.

I am sorry for lecturing but again when you weep on your own 1, 2, 3 months from now you will remember what I said here.

This week has been spectacular, and I might add half the profit was from the short covering rally #1 today, 150 seconds holding period.

The most important point to learn is that now bear market rally will last for 30 minutes max. I look forward to see it compressed even more to 2-3 minutes or seconds in not too distant future.

gtt said...

Well said. This is why long ago I simply put most of my money in bear funds, small amount left to get myself in trouble trading with. I know what the end result will be, I just don't know when.

D said...

keep in mind that you will need three trading days after you close out your shorts before you will be able to extract any of the money from the market...

MTGSPY said...

or if your broker still there....

ok, ok, ok, you don't wanna hear that, fine. End of the world is not predictable by mortals. Ok. Got it.

But crash call is still on every day untill libor3 month - prime rate is below -0.25%.