Thursday, October 9, 2008

Bottom!


16 comments:

gtt said...

me likey.

ARAK said...

Mr. Spy,

Care to explain your spreadsheet please. Some of the values are obvious, but some need more of an explantion so we can follow.

MTGSPY said...

E = earnings projection in unit of $1

G = Growth in %

D = discount rate - you can see that I actually express an implicit view of Deflation vs. inflation there.

Yes - I am aware there is no positives in the first 3 years forecast, but that's ok. I'll take my "chances".

ARAK said...

Do 1 through 4 for each of these values mean quarters or are you using them to derive the probability matric?

MTGSPY said...

The probability is mine. Observe the TM :D

You may use your own. Just take the #s and multiply with your own view.

ARAK said...

Mr Spy,

Are you planning to cover around the 850 area to reshort the bounce or are you planning to ride it out till 564? Assuming you are short at the 1200 area, you could afford to hold. Not if you entered say in the 1000 area.

Foghat said...

I like spreadsheets. I like statistics. I like my own view. I like no bids but I don't like no booze. I like pussy, even when I don't like the brain that it's indirectly attached to. I like watching the shadow banking system crash and burn in the pits of hell. These are the things I like.

gtt said...

foghat that was genius. i might have to use that as my sign. on tickerforum.

Foghat said...

gtt...go ahead...but quote "The Schwantz" :-)

MTGSPY said...

Foghat:
Is there one attached to any of those?

ROFL

MTGSPY said...

Ok, ok, that's too much. I probably just create invitation only soon, I want to show you what I know about 2 companies that have $40 price, but it's not yet time now. I even have what they own in a file, but I lack the firepower to finish it. Just the right story to fleet around. Then the end is complete. Not yet ... just in case there's a snapback here.

Foghat said...

When I hiked the Inca Trail in Peru to Macchu Picchu, on the third day, it was all stairs down the whole way. You never know when you're at the bottom, you just know that your ears pop at some point along the way.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225#chart1:symbol=^n225;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

MTGSPY said...

Everyday is a crash Arak. Everyday.

Can't turn a dime with rate like this.

gtt said...

give us a libor real time update soon as it crosses your bloomberg term, spy, i'm gettin big delays.

MTGSPY said...

i think its not set till 11 am but whatever it is i know this is day #3 there is no money flowing in USA banking system.

jpick said...

earnings will suck no doubt and price to dividend ratios are still awful and divies are gonna be slashed further as capital preservation takes hold of even "good" companies in this long, nasty downturn...

but that is for the future, today we bounce! hehe