Friday, October 31, 2008

If FX is the trigger, then

this chart suggests we're not there yet. Election = market cops will be out in force? It's in fact what I would do if I were running Ben, I mean Fed. (Ben is independent, nobody is running him :D)

8 comments:

Greenie said...

Mr. Spy, you are using recent past to predict immediate future. In my limited experience, that method does not work well in the financial markets. You might as well find out the positions of moon and Venus over the last few weeks, and identify some pattern.

Although I do not have vast exposure like Atilla, only method I found to work reliably is to figure out the positions of key players, determine their next moves, and position accordingly. Tape reading works, if used in that context. For example, you can say that a doji means key players are unsure about the next move. That does not mean they are looking for a reversal. If it is found that small suckers are betting on a reversal, they will come back and put money for another round of advance.

Similarly large players come and buy at a major trendline, because that reduces their risk. If a major trend line gets broken for extended period, that means buyers do not have enough cash and everyone will see that. So, the market will go down as the next step.

Just my few cents.

M. said...

Any comment on this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAjZVa6Jdko&feature=related

jpick said...

yeah, she's hot, what's your point?

MTGSPY said...

Get that as your GF and you'll get the Great Depression my friend. LOLz

M. said...

There are several more.

According to youtube, she is a 23 year old housewife, who joined youtube about 3-4 weeks back to inform us about the crash that is coming soon.

What does tell you about the probability of the coming crash?

MTGSPY said...

Greenie, what kind of "key" players do you have in your pocket? I just want to privately compare with my keys. :)

D said...

I'm leaning towards uber-bearish now...I am deeply disappointed by this rally to be honest. I started feeling weird about the market on Friday when the market wouldn't launch-off. E-W is complete crap and I only look at those goof balls to collect intel on suckers' buy/sell points. I am now considering the sell-sell-sell scenario that followed April 23, 1930 corrective rally top. USD/JPY has taken a complete beat-down and closed at the top of a downward sloping channel that is opening wider...

Monday/Tuesday will be very interesting to watch. I am 90% cash with 10% in misc. individual stocks that aren't correlated to any of this thus far...other than they aren't going up either.

:)

MTGSPY said...

If I were TPTB, I will send all my Market Judge Dredd out there. There's no way I am gonna let the market NOT rally 500 pts when the first BLACK MAN becomes US president. No F-in way sir.

I have an important writeup after the election about the impact of this election on the market plus some flaming story. But that's gotta wait now :D