Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Interrupting the current TV show for updates from Zimbabwe.

11 comments:

Penn said...

Still holding the name of the bank secret?

I have set aside some dry powder for it

MTGSPY said...

yeah, still rallying. I am trying to do BOTH trade and risk management, however unlikely I could be succesful on both :D

Talking more with people upstream from the trading desk (closer to frontline) and they seem to be wondering what this bank's strategy is too based on the filings. heheheheh.

MTGSPY said...

in the mean time, do u think either one of these is getting ripe or is there a chance of tickdown on unemployment tomorrow to burn the short....too much risk. I was talking about FED, WB, COF, ZION.

Penn said...

I am really tempted to enter FED right now. Like you say, the fundamentals are excruciatingly bad. I tend to play this by selling 3 months out ITM money calls - make the insane premium work in my favor rather than against me. If the position moves against me, I just sit on it knowing this pig has to come down sooner than later

COF moves way too quickly. Any short squeeze has the potential to take this to $45

Don't follow WB.

With ZION, I have a short position that I refuse to give up since it is not available to borrow anywhere. This one I will need to hold through all the swings. In the instance of a short squeeze, I see it going to $32 (the point it touched during the last financial squeeze two weeks back)

Greenie said...

Short squeeze is over. What short squeeze are you talking about?

In a bear market, short squeeze comes first. It is sharp and swift. By then, the squeezable late shorts are all out and the thing falls down on its own weight.

Only during March bottom, when the whole world was talking about depression, the short squeeze lasted for so long.

Greenie said...

Mr. Spy, I got some SRS today.

vin said...

penn, if i'm correct, the interesting bank is a direct short only. allocate your dry powder appropriately.

Penn said...

Thanks for the heads up Vin. Will clean up some trades to free up more capital

MTGSPY said...

good for you greenie.

See I was not wrong either.

GGP Jan 25s were 3.10-3.30 yesterday and a 10% drop took it to ... 3.50-3.70.

This is why I hated playing cuz the enemy is so well entrenched for now. If I were playing then the optimal way was to buy SRS like what u did or just short GGP.

2:30 pm could be oil-closing related pump so maybe SPG or GGP has a room there to play a bit into.

Penn said...

Short WAMU????

Greenie said...

I can't do options. That time element kills me. One day I will need to take a lesson from you.