Tuesday, July 8, 2008

what to do ...

is to add more short into ZION and probably use the money from WB to do it.
GSE will provide the rocket fuel in financials, hopefully. Until somebody asks where MTG is gonna fetch the money from, that is.

Also a very clear sign is emerging that the US hasn't been printing more than the self-imposed rule of CPI for the past 18 months, despite claims otherwise from basic material/agri/oil people. Not very nice ending for those, I suspect. AA reported in-line despite 10% less shares, which are all bought above current prices. Very nice management reminiscent of FRE, CFC, and DSL. Will inquire the name of ultra long basic material later this evening. I saw that MON was indeed $60 before the beginning of "anti-US$" trade from July last year when Libor started blowing up in earnest.

10 comments:

Greenie said...

UYM.

Are you going long basic materials now??

Greenie said...

check out this bank - IBN. India's largest private bank created about 10 years back. They brought 'innovation' to the Indian banking system - you know what it means.

MTGSPY said...

thanks i am replacing my SMN with shorting UYM per what u said last week.

MTGSPY said...

assuming Beta of 1, if MON get cut 30%, UYM is down 60%!!!???

Count me in.

innovation? heheheheh. That'd trigger the next civil war.

MTGSPY said...

their product is seeds that need less nutrient, sunlight, water, and soil to grow and yet giving out larger harvest.

Wat is this? Zombie Corn? The 1st law of thermodynamics is violated?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_law_of_thermodynamics

Or nuclear reaction is what will happen after you drink the next generation "red bull"? heheheheh

gtt said...

Went long RAI yesterday long DDM today. Asians will need lots of cigarettes in years ahead.

Greenie said...

"thanks i am replacing my SMN with shorting UYM per what u said last week."

I can make an equally good case of why long ultrashort fund is better than short ultralong. Of course which choice is better would depend on knowing the future :)

"their product is seeds that need less nutrient, sunlight, water, and soil to grow and yet giving out larger harvest."

They make genetically modified seeds. Their biggest rival - environmental nuts.

D said...

First, I am bearish on basic materials...well everything given longer time frames. BUT, having a family member that founded (40 years ago) a seed bio-engineering company I can appreciate some of the things that MON does.

Seeds are still subject to the laws of physics, but there are significant inefficiencies/antagonists that engineers have been able to remove from the seed planting --> yield process. DE isn't the only reason why we don't need as many farmers to produce the quantities of food we require.

I like SMN vs. short-UYM right here.

A said...

Whats the logic behind ZION? Do you expect them to end up $10 just like WB? Their balance sheet doesn't appear as bad as WB or FED

MTGSPY said...

ZION is the new gold mine for short. It has SIV, worth 50% of book value of equity, and small tweaks in fee income and net interest income will get you negative earnings for 2-4 quarters. If provision for loan losses do accelerate then it could really be a "Downey moment"