Thursday, July 31, 2008

So, I will leave risk management to you guys.

imho bad job report is the signal to go in fast. Good job report is where I ask u use your own discretion, stops, and risk management strategy. There is no option in this one and that is a minus. If you feel this is not explosive enough, FED is still around.

I tried to find more FED and DSL-type of supernova.

It is kinda scary with possibly more suckers coming in (remember FED going to $12 for like, 5 minutes?) and upset the best laid plans.

The key is catching the animal while NPA is small, but with what I know of the situation and numbers, make a forecast about whether such can go parabolic in losses.

I was speculating about PCBC, but the price seems to reflect an already parabolic loan loss reserve or somewhat close to it. I have some puts there and was checking the price, when I mistyped "CBC" instead of PCBC and I think this could be SHORT at FIRST SIGHT.

Location must be bubble state heavy, delinquency/NPA ratio should not cross 5% yet (undetected by masses), and asset GROWTH had to be pretty good clip (10%) in 2007 to maximize FUTURE damage to equity and earnings. Furthermore, a "dilution strategy", taking more asset to deflate %delinquent to appear low, is a bonus if you can get one.

As you can see, the typo could really be similar to a guy digging for coal in the backyard and struck uranium deposit instead.

Read on:

Net interest margin


Total nonperforming assets / total assets (quarterly from last year to now)


$5,340,400 (Q2 this year)
$4,901,763 (Q2 last year)

Total stockholders' equity

$389,145 (Q2 this year)
$385,965 (Q2 last year)

See that?


Capitol Bancorp’s National Network of Community Banks

Arizona Region:

Arrowhead Community Bank
Glendale, Arizona
Asian Bank of Arizona
Phoenix, Arizona
Bank of Tucson
Tucson, Arizona
Camelback Community Bank
Phoenix, Arizona
Colonia Bank
Phoenix, Arizona
Mesa Bank
Mesa, Arizona
Southern Arizona Community Bank
Tucson, Arizona
Sunrise Bank of Albuquerque
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Sunrise Bank of Arizona
Phoenix, Arizona
Valley First Community Bank
Scottsdale, Arizona
Yuma Community Bank
Yuma, Arizona

California Region:

Bank of Escondido
Escondido, California
Bank of Feather River
Yuba City, California
Bank of San Francisco
San Francisco, California
Bank of Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara, California
Napa Community Bank
Napa, California
Point Loma Community Bank
San Diego, California
Sunrise Bank of San Diego
San Diego, California
Sunrise Community Bank
Palm Desert, California

Colorado Region:

Fort Collins Commerce Bank
Fort Collins, Colorado
Larimer Bank of Commerce
Fort Collins, Colorado
Loveland Bank of Commerce
Loveland, Colorado
Mountain View Bank of Commerce
Westminster, Colorado

Great Lakes Region:

Ann Arbor Commerce Bank
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Bank of Auburn Hills
Auburn Hills, Michigan
Bank of Maumee
Maumee, Ohio
Bank of Michigan
Farmington Hills, Michigan
Brighton Commerce Bank
Brighton, Michigan
Capitol National Bank
Lansing, Michigan
Detroit Commerce Bank
Detroit, Michigan
Elkhart Community Bank
Elkhart, Indiana
Evansville Commerce Bank
Evansville, Indiana
Goshen Community Bank
Goshen, Indiana
Grand Haven Bank
Grand Haven, Michigan
Kent Commerce Bank
Grand Rapids, Michigan
Macomb Community Bank
Clinton Township, Michigan
Muskegon Commerce Bank
Muskegon, Michigan
Oakland Commerce Bank
Farmington Hills, Michigan
Ohio Commerce Bank
Beachwood, Ohio
Paragon Bank & Trust
Holland, Michigan
Portage Commerce Bank
Portage, Michigan

Midwest Region:

Adams Dairy Bank
Blue Springs, Missouri
Bank of Belleville
Belleville, Illinois
Community Bank of Lincoln
Lincoln, Nebraska
Summit Bank of Kansas City
Lee’s Summit, Missouri

Nevada Region:

1st Commerce Bank
North Las Vegas, Nevada
Bank of Las Vegas
Las Vegas, Nevada
Black Mountain Community Bank
Henderson, Nevada
Desert Community Bank
Las Vegas, Nevada
Red Rock Community Bank
Las Vegas, Nevada

Northeast Region:

Geneva, New York

Northwest Region:

Bank of Bellevue
Bellevue, Washington
Bank of Everett
Everett, Washington
Bank of Tacoma
Tacoma, Washington
High Desert Bank
Bend, Oregon
Issaquah Community Bank
Issaquah, Washington

Southeast Region:

Bank of Valdosta
Valdosta, Georgia
Community Bank of Rowan
Salisbury, North Carolina
First Carolina State Bank
Rocky Mount, North Carolina
Peoples State Bank
Jeffersonville, Georgia
Pisgah Community Bank
Asheville, North Carolina
Sunrise Bank of Atlanta
Atlanta, Georgia

Texas Region:

Bank of Fort Bend
Sugar Land, Texas
Bank of Las Colinas
Irving, Texas


Greenie said...

Interesting find. The sucker dropped from 45 to 7. What do you mean by it has not been discovered?

MTGSPY said...

maybe not discovered by me yet. heheheh. But this one is juicy at $13-15 with a target of $0.

D said...


I had a horrible experience trying to cash a check from FMBI last September and I told the VP they were on my list for takeover...thought I was nuts. Absolutely piss-poor run bank.


Driving hard into commercial real estate lending in chicago. Hired away a bunch of the Lasalle team after the BAC buyout. Pretty much all of the meat left on the bone here.

Greenie said...

Gosh !! So many banks to short. So little money left. I need to cover things and rethink my strategy....feeling like a little boy in candy shop :)

P. S. Had the same feeling in Feb 2007, when I first heard of IMB and DSL.

Penn said...

MTG, you hogged all the shares. No CBC available to short at Fidelity or TOS

D said...


open up an account at IBKR, they show 100,000 available.


MTGSPY said...

see, i am doubting myself about other opportunity cuz FED is nearly $9, why would anyone short anything else?. Is this craaaazzy or what or is the past 18 months just a mirage and none of these option arms delinquency, default, etc. really didnt happen and I was just imagining it?

Penn said...

FED at 9.00, WB at 19.20 .. ZION at 30.50

I don't think I will hunt around for CBC shares. These pigs are sufficient to keep me loaded when the time is right.

Opened a small position in FED and WB. Will keep adding at $1.50 intervals if these stocks continue to run up

Penn said...

FED SEPT $2.50 going for less than a quarter.. anyone speculating??

Anonymous said...

Still think FITB is the surest bet out there...