Friday, June 27, 2008

This market got NO bid!!!

On average I'd say front month protective calls might have been down 20%!!! today. This is big for a 3 wk option. Reason #1: low VIX/complacency and reason #2: There is NO bid, getting tired dealing with pigmen/financials/momotech and losing boatloads everytime.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

What are you talking about... there was massive XLF call buying today.

D said...

Who do you think will take Bernanke's life when he recognizes that his life's work was a complete failure?

A) People with pitchforks
B) Nature
C) Himself

Greenie said...

I would say Mishkin, his biggest supporter, who realized lately that Bernanke is nothing more than a hack.

Beard can be deceiving sometimes.

MTGSPY said...

Monday 12pm:

I saw a potential HUGE headfake. FRE and FNM losing friends, just like March "bottoming" process everything forgot rocket fuel is still mortgage company and it is falling, diverging from the rest. See you at the end of the tunnel. Talking to stock funds people suggests that very many are upset because they got caught and want out before more damage. A specter to behold when history repeats, this bear market leg down DEFINITELY incomplete.

Penn said...

Is shorting Fannie and Freddie still a good play or time to cover now?

MTGSPY said...

short anything. March experience indicated everything blew up severely after the headfake.

Greenie said...

This IT decline is far from complete except for occasional small bounces. When I read tickerforum, I see the rally after March bottom left a deep scar making the bears are taking profits quickly. That alone can prolong the decline.

TF needs to look like March bottom before we have another sustainable rally.

MTGSPY said...

I told you, this is a really ugly headfake.

The situation is IDENTICAL now that I looked at the data and what not with #s surrounding March 1st-March 5th. This could be a prelude to TWO WEEK Blood-letting Fest.

TradingAdvisor said...

penn,

mtgspy was long FRE & FNM calls and stock I believe 2 to 3 weeks back

he is also on record with me as saying that there would be a massive bailout of FRE and FNM

Bullshit!

if you're going to lose money, do it on your own decisions, don't rely on others

Anonymous said...

http://mtgspy.blogspot.com/2008/06/if-you-must-invest-in-death-star-nation.html

MTGSPY said...

Hahahah.

I panicked a bit and checked my trading acct if indeed I had bot FRE/FNM by accident. There is none. The last time I recalled playing it is in this blog somewhere anticipating a 20% pop AT earnings but only got 11% or so instead and that WAS enough.

The above is not to encourage you to listen to me but merely to defend my record. If I said something but didn't do it, or stop loss and forgot to tell you that is always a risk. You are correct, that you should always think on your own and think fast.

About the above link someone posted, I should probably add that if you are buying FRE/FNM bond try to hedge it with Tsy to earn a credit arbitrage. You should ALWAYS be aware that a MASSIVE bailout will give you zero for common and preferred but make whole the senior debt. I still think that a bailout will be needed depending entirely on what MTG and RDN decided to do. :D

Penn said...

TradingAdvisor, I take my decisions as I see fit however I do consider the opinions of people who understand the industry better than I do.

Having said that, I have read all of MTG's posts for the last few months. No one has a 100% accuracy rate however MTG has been correct more often that not.

Also, he never said that he was long FRE/FNM calls or common. The last time he mentioned something positive about FNM/FRE common was when he mentioned that FNM/FRE might benefit due to their being short duration (and interest rates increasing) He did mention that it might be a good play to go long FRE/FNM but he never emphasized it. The explanation for the rise in FNM/FRE common seemed to esoteric for me to guage so I never implemented the strategy. In future posts, MTG did mention that he did not like the common or the preferred.

By the way, your handle seems to imply that you provide trading advice yourself. Mind posting the link to your blog where we can evaluate the accuracy of your calls

D said...

I vouch for Mtg, not sure of the exact post but I specifically asked him for his updated position on FRE/FNM common/preferred and he said stay away.

I am not in a position to waste my time looking for the post though, but it is out there within the past two weeks.

George Bush said...

dear tard advisor

your a moron

PCap said...

OMG, I agree with George Bush

Greenie said...

Yes, Mtgspy was asking people to buy BSC in March. I heard it on TV.

...oops, my mistake. That was Cramer.

Penn said...

What are your thoughts on doing a FNM/FRE pair trader. The gap is again $3.50

MTGSPY said...

that is a good observation. Could it be that it made its way to $4 first before closing in, and when it does, it couldn't pierce the $3 gap anyway?

I would do this trade EVERYDAY provided MTG would announce that they are running out of money (which they are) and prime mortgage losses start to spiral out. It's those 3 stooges holding up the game, MTG, RDN and PMI. By my estimate they should be where ABK is right now.

Penn said...

Entered the FRE/FNM pair trade when the gap was $4.00 right now.

Will monitor the situation closely

MTGSPY said...

RDN was halted this morning. Word of caution, the gap may widen a bit more, read the Jul 3 article on FRE failing to raise capital in WSJ.

Penn said...

Hmmm... I am more inclined to think about the $4 gap in term of percentages than absolute values.

At current trading prices, FNM is valued 30%-35% more than FRE.. even with the failed capital raising that seems high

I don't think I am going to put any serious money in this trade. If the gap expands to $4.50, I will stop out with a small loss.

MTGSPY said...

the WSJ article crystallize my view that mid Aug is the quarter bottom whatever the # is by then. This is the opposite of how I usually operate but situation requires I do such.

Anonymous said...

mtgspy, your quote

I am so glad i covered FRE long
http://mtgspy.blogspot.com/2008/05/i-am-so-glad-i-covered-fre-long.html

stop lying you incompetent druggie

pcap, i've reviewed your posts on ticker forum, you're a moron who has lost money and if you need me to point out your moron calls let me know

Anonymous said...

someone is trying to win a fight over the intawab - does it make you feel special ?

Penn said...

FRE/FNM are getting vaporized. My stop at 4.50 got hit. I should have just shorted the two together than enter the paired trade. Oh well, watch and learn

gtt said...

So what's the word from the belly of the beast spy, why are those two getting taken out and shot today?

MTGSPY said...

http://mtgspy.blogspot.com/2008/05/i-am-so-glad-i-covered-fre-long.html

This was the FRE earnings play in May 14-15 when it spiked 11% and I covered my long position. That was a 2-day trade that paid pretty well, so what's the issue?

The nationalization may happen sooner than expected because FRE has failed to raise capital. Read the CEO comment which is now notoriously sent over emails in Wall st:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/11/AR2007121102218.html

(3rd paragraph)


- Druggie Mtgspy.

gler said...

Holy crap... what's up with these CEOs giving such graphic descriptions - "shoot ourselves in the head with a gun"; "cut off both my arms, and both my legs, and my head and my kidney".

Anonymous said...

mtgspy

there is no issue, i dont want to spend the time to find the comments but you clearly said FNM & FRE would receive huge govt bailout and you saw these turds over $30

you should be man enough to admit it

MTGSPY said...

I said a lot of things about GSEs over the past 15 months. Yes, about 6 months ago I did say they SHOULD get $100B, split up $60B and $40B between FNM and FRE respectively.

Since they CLEARLY didn't get it thus the nationalization idea is more tenable.

My last 4 position changes with FRE:

May-Nov: moderate long in FRE and WFC for hedges against very large short positions in 380 WM contracts among other things.

Nov (D-1 to earnings) MASSIVE SHORT and PUTs in the drop from $40 to $22.

Feb (D-3 to earnings) Moderate long in the spike.

May (D-3 to earnings) Minor long.

I would say nailing #2 alone should exempt me from further criticism.

I admit this round down was unanticipated, as I was not paying attention to the capital raising issue. My attention was required elsewhere (DSL, FED, WB, and more recently, ZION).

If somehow you went long FRE and what I said (and forgot to retract) didn't pan out, please sell it immediately because it is headed to zero. I am 100% certain of it now.

MTGSPY said...

Btw, did u notice WSJ says 75B, split 49B and 26B between FRE and FNM. That raw guess turns out "within the ballpark", does it not?

PCap said...

Some anonymous loser said:
"pcap, i've reviewed your posts on ticker forum, you're a moron who has lost money and if you need me to point out your moron calls let me know"

I know some of my calls were moronic (Oh no, I had some losing trades!!!), but overall my calls are doing rather fantastic.

Penn said...

FRE/FNM going to to zero MTG? Recommend shorting or is the risk of a bounce very high?

D said...

the biggest morons are the bulls that shill their losing positions.

MTGSPY said...

It is REALLY hard to say what "rally a lot" means for FRE and FNM.

A $5 move up is a whopping 40%! And for what?

Does anyone know what FRE IPO is going to price on or after Aug 15?

Is it gonna be $8, $10, or $15? Let's say you do the Buffett-thing, and it turns out the market participants believe the value to be $8 at IPO and you already paid $15 for it, are you pretty much dead or not?

Maybe, shorting it at $15-17 IF it ever gets there makes sense given what I just said, especially if it happens before August. Which I very much doubt.