Friday, June 20, 2008

If your wife is pregnant

Unlike previous generation, this kid maybe destined for a historic role!

Could it be like this?

200X Witnessing fatal failures of numerous banking rescues because they fight basic math.
200X Enactment of various LARGE taxes to correct "social imbalances"
201X Enactement of one time Wealth tax
201X An absolute desperation of the formerly greatest nation in the universe, it has been 20+ years since the most significant innovation was invented and there was nothing else after.
201X Comparable wealth and technology (civilian and military) existed in several dominant earth nations, including USA.
201X A US "hero" arises, could be your kid, but doesn't matter really, and he promises food and social justice for everyone at seemingly very little cost and sacrifices.
202X(early) Some academics and their books would be BURNED. Something about writings of the REAL cost of the "miracle".
202X The cost involves taking a small area outside USA and integrated as a US state. Something about energy source.
202X Several small areas outside USA are "integrated" as well, with minor protests from the inhabitants. All news from these "areas" are controlled before they reached the outside universe.
202X A large area outside USA and this area borders to a US rival is "integrated" causing a near full-scale conflict with the "rival" but was ended with the "hero's" promise not to integrate any more land.
202X Two pronged wars were started by USA, who claimed that rivals would invade at any moment. USA population would be 5% of the world, and wealth / technology still comparable to the rest.
202X The expansion came to a halt when a massive Russian winter stopped the Big Red One outside of Moscow.
202X (late) The "rogue nations" were pushing back. News from the front are getting hard to come by. Younger and younger recruits were sent, including YOUR KID, who volunteers! Congrats!. Propaganda all mentioned how every time just 1 hero defeated HUNDREDS of barbarians in various remote places in the world, as long as the faith to the "hero" is maintained. Continuous emphasis on "quality" to try and defeat overwhelming "quantity" from two fronts.
203X After continuous retreats, the Battle of Capitol Hill begins. *Video games would later be made off this battle, in which hundreds of volunteer and a couple of Abrams IX tanks heroically sacrificed themselves just to buy a couple of hours.
203X The Hero comitted suicide. (If this is your kid, the HISTORIC ROLE is fulfilled here!)
203X A white flag is flown on the capitol, by none other than YOUR KID, who is at the time a captain in his FOLK-STORMER brigade. Thus the HISTORIC ROLE is fulfilled.

An alternate history would probably be more plausible though you may agree that this wont quite have the historic role of the previous alternate history, but here it is anyway:

Your kid works for a call center of Arabic banks/Asian banks collecting past due cell phone bills from 201X to 204X when he dies of cancer due to unchecked radiation from lack of shielding from nearby nuclear reactor, owned by the same company he works for. :D


Greenie said...

Your overall sketch of history matches mine, except that mine ends with a holocaust-like event. That's how all financial crisis progressed in western countries from King Edward's 13th Century Britain to Ferdinand and Isabella's Spain to Emperor Hitler's Germany.

My baby will have to leave this country, unless he goes through accelerated facial plastic surgery like Michael Jackson. His life may be easier, if he learns Chinese instead. We are on the lookout for a Chinese nanny lately.

Who will be the American Fuerer? He needs to have following qualities - (i) outside the current political system, (ii) has political interests (i.e. enjoys telling people what to do), (iii) has been warning people non-stop about the coming economic crisis and (iv) has number of dedicated followers, who all dislike the current political system (both parties) and (v) tolerates some degree of racism among his followers. Racism will be absolutely essential to bring the majority to his side.

If you see any good candidate, please let me know. That's the piece of puzzle I have not solved yet.

D said...

Far too optimistic to think things will perpetuate through 202X.


impenetratingCharlesMom said...

Three points:

1. Five years ago the probability of scenario one was exactly zero. The fact that it is SURELY non-zero today imho is absolutely life changing to me.

2. To DETECT which is the "fuehrer" in 1920s, you could have done so if you were among the first buyers of "Mein Kampf". Which is it today?

3. If I were a child today, I will choose scenario 1 as more prefferable than the mediocre ending. Let me go out in STYLE. Thank you, mr spy.

Anonymous said...

America still has military superiority. There are 2 ways to get out of debt - pay'em or kill'em.

Greenie said...

"To DETECT which is the "fuehrer" in 1920s, you could have done so if you were among the first buyers of "Mein Kampf". Which is it today?"

and if I also shorted in 1929, I could be in place of Kennedy family running USA today.

Unfortunately, those historical events all look clear only in retrospect, just like the market tops. Thanks to Charles, Peeny, Alphatraders and others, it has become very easy to detect market tops :) How can we do the same for social events?

Greenie said...

"America still has military superiority. There are 2 ways to get out of debt - pay'em or kill'em."

America's ruling class and people are on two sides today. Give Mozillo an A-bomb, and the first person he will go after is probably that homedebtor who sent him nasty emails.

alcan said...

Your description of the next American Fuehrer "oddly" seems similar to the description of the beer hall that you were tossed out of back in March. Are you suggesting something? :)

We won't let them resettle you; you are appreciated too much around here for that!

Greenie said...

That beer hall reflects the social mood of average American people. Keep an eye on it for purposes other than trading :)

chalres said...

no worries

its all about the slosh. Uncle ben has our backs

prince chalres

Anonymous said...

greenie, the comment re America's military superiority is in response to "Your kid works for a call center of Arabic banks/Asian banks collecting past due cell phone bills". This will never happen - before things really get that bad, the American people will all be behind finishing the invasion of Middle East and making Arabs into full-time slaves.

MTGSPY said...

Excellent commentaries from everyone! I see that everyone is aware what is (going to be) up next ! [evilgrin] I will sign up to whichever army has the coolest uniform.

D said...

VLT Social Inflection Signals:

It is what it is! Keep your flame thrower to yourself, mankind has been down this road before and civilization always takes a beat-down when we make it "this far." There is too much dead weight in the system when over-eating, "drive-thru" marriages and experimenting with members of the opposite sex becomes socially acceptable. Get back to work people.

Timing the collapse and what to do about it are the real challenges we face.

Anonymous said...

By the time the war comes, US forces should be made largely of remote-controlled drones a la Predator. So mtgspy, you can probably be in shorts and T-shirts whilst blowing some M.E. city up =)

PCap said...

"I will sign up to whichever army has the coolest uniform."

The Vatican's Swiss guard?

D said...

haha...i just noticed that i said, "experimenting with members of the opposite sex."

obviously I got that one backwards.