Tuesday, June 3, 2008

cashing out

BRK/B and DHR.

I think their time runs out. DHR "narrows" their profit forecast so that they are more certain but this means nothing. I will sell them tomorrow. So what I have done in the past 2 weeks are gradually cashing out of my long position and increasing short bets in nook and cranny of the market like FED, WB, and OSTK short and puts.

The cavalry is however, not yet out as I don't want them to be massacred by crazy bottom-calling hordes in case I am wrong. It looks like EVERYTHING runs out of steam at this point. Check out DCI since I told you I was cashing out. Everyday a pumper showed up and upgraded it after practically ignored it for months (and at that point DCI WAS going up on its own without their help!!! ) and yet NO change in price since earnings. I think a 10-15% pullback in that one to $45 range is not out of the question especially if the sentiment in the market confirmed this.

More final bits and pieces from the Spring "Selling" season and a BUST just DOESN'T quite describe it. On the loan / mortgage sides, POWERFUL entities in the market who seem to be immune in the past 12 months are secretly hurting and beginning to ask advice to people like me how to justify changes in marks of portfolio. These are the types of questions that if the sources leak my head is on a platter. But the s**t is VERY real, much more so than the last half of last year.


douche_bag said...

2nd q is worse hhuh??? I thought hanky panky said we were almost t-t-t-t-hrough

well thanks for info mister spy

D said...

On the commercial front, my contact in Florida said CRE is still doing "ok." Delinquencies are at ~2.6%.

My $0.02 is HELOC portfolios are the story of the summer with alt-A right on its heels...commercial having topped out will roll-over by Q1 2009.

MTGSPY said...

complete failure. 2004-2005 performance no longer accelerates but that's because of burnout - nothing left to accelerate into. :)

2006-2007 however is in warpspeed. The comment I made about "advice" is real and not meant to make myself an inch longer than I claim down there.

Greenie said...

That AAPL chart suggests that something crazy is going to happen soon. BIDU, FSLR even worse. There are too many bloated pigs to kill in the coming days. The front line of this war moved away from housing to the 'broke consumer' arena.

13thgeneration said...

mtgspy, stay safe. Don't think you'll go wrong with wackybank.

Greenie said...

"My $0.02 is HELOC portfolios are the story of the summer with alt-A right on its heels."

HELOC is the starter. The real deal will be oil crash. I expect a spectacular show there, if my understanding is right.