Saturday, June 7, 2008

A sign ...

that a company is in hot water .... is that the Yahoo board for that company is completely hijacked. Back when OSTK first headed into trouble, first the management hired paid posters from india, then the investors (shorters) hired the same.

The last time I visited GGP board was in Jan 2008. It was peachy clean and there was very little discussion around the company. In Jun 2008, the place is a battlefield with paid posters from both sides completely obliterate anybody they see the opposite of their "mandate" :D

Do what you must.


alcan said...

Off topic but I wanted to ask your opinion about this. You recommended SMN based on the antecedent decline in DBA. However, DBA just broke through its 20 and 50 day MA. Does that mean that it is time to close this position? Or, is something going to happen soon to "fix" this problem, at least temporarily?

D said...

I see choppy strength (at a minimum) in the commodities sector for at least the next two weeks.

MTGSPY said...

typically when I pick a "topic", it's usually if I am wrong about timing a 6 months period later it's still yielding 30-50%. :D

Also the amount is about 10% my trading account and if I need money for other stuffs I have it. I'll see this one to its end. Only oil holding up the remainder of the complex.

D said...

A certain well known defense contractor essentially froze all spending on a major project in the past few weeks and urged employees to take vacation time. Not going to give anymore details...I need to be intentionally vague.

I figure the anecdote is worth providing though.

D said...

Posted a link to a paper you need to read in you greenspan monday morning quarterback thread. I know you you don't compare the the present crisis to LTCM, but some people do and they couldn't be more wrong. LTCM was one big squeeze compared to the material defaults going on in the debt markets.

Greenspan's only test came in 2001 and instead of doing the right thing he pumped arm mortgages and lowering lending standards so consumers would take the interest-rate risk off of bank books...he green-lighted our problem.

Just giving you a hard time!


MTGSPY said...

I have enough surveillance and software VERY similar to those in the fed to predict the CPI and PPI given the _rate_ of change in oil, and while it is very hard to justify a 20% increase in oil within a month on average and this cannot possibly last for more than a few months, the # I got is under several scenarios averaging 7+% (5% over target). Any Fed governor fearing for his reputation/job/speaking engagmenet fee prospect will think several times over about the risk of NOT hiking rate at this point, unexpectedly.
A software user/formulaic-type person like Bernanke is most assuredly looking at the same set of numbers I have at the moment, making him even more likely than Greenspan to do so.
Since I posted this, rates in Euro has risen, so is rates in several asian countries and AUD. Also, reserve requirement in China has gone up. Need I say more who hasn't done anything and under BIG pressure to do so?

D said...

I couldn't agree more on the reality of these price increases and the pressure to do something about them. The fact that they are doing nothing about it is what should terrify everyone. $191,300 is Bernanke's 2008 salary, but I think his exit strategy is "consulting" to major banks for taking care of his banking masters...not speaking.

His "research" showed fat tail observations and he still concluded no rate increases is appropriate. What his models lack is sufficient data points from the modern energy markets (post-CFMA 2000) that invite speculation because of standardized products, low margins, and a cash settlement option (ICE).

The market is taking the banksters and their inadequate models to task. The credit crisis remains and is now diversifying beyond their control.

The only adequate response is to intentionally take down credit by increasing margins and closing PDCF/TAF/TSLF. The problem with that medicine is that it causes the banks to blow out today instead of 12 months from now. Either way, the end is a massive debt deflation.

D said...

One thing I would like to add, is that Bernanke is currently perceived as the savior of the banking system by the majority for his "aggressive" actions. I expect the media will eventually lead the story pinning the high oil prices on speculators...

It is true after all, speculators are bidding the prices up. Where do we stop now that we broke out again and the trend is strengthening? $150? $175? $200?

These guys are winging it.