No need for introduction, those who know what they are looking at in this screenshot will (regardless how they tweak the first column) realize that 3rd column is ALREADY at the low end of risk premium and the result establishes a firm floor and ceiling on SPX based on nominal earnings (keeping inflation #s constant).
Then you can see how much upside and downside you have in this game regardless of these relentless chartists opinions.
Here's the news and what it implies according to me, do your own and see for yourself.
Addition: I do not believe GS earnings forecast for both 2008 and 2009. I think we are on track for $68-72 in 2008 and $62-75 in 2009 conditional on 2008. My best estimate is $70 and $65, respectively.
By Elizabeth Stanton
June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Analysts' expectations for 2008 and
2009 earnings for Standard & Poor's 500 Index companies are ``too
optimistic'' and are likely to be reduced, Goldman Sachs Group
Inc.'s David Kostin said.
Those companies will probably earn $78 a share this year
as a group and $83 a share in 2009, Goldman's chief stock
strategist wrote in a report. He said those are 12 percent and 22
percent lower, respectively, than what other analysts project.
``Consensus estimates will be revised downward as the impact
of commodity inflation, consumer weakness and slowing U.S. growth
limits sales and margins,'' the report said. Fiscal stimulus
``will not nearly be enough to offset the weakness in overall
consumer spending driven by falling house prices, rising food and
energy costs and historically low sentiment levels.''
The right enemy
5 years ago