Thursday, August 14, 2008

Signs of time.....

PMI is up because they're closing offices and said they may now have a bit more cash to pay for the hook waiting for them in the homeland (like a quarter of FNM business is insured with them?)

ABK and MBI rally HARD in AUGUST 2008!! AUGUST 2008!!! People what is this? Some kind of a prank? What do you do when you have a paper will only pay interest for about, err, 3 more months? Yeah, you pay $2 for it. ABK paid $100 for those with what capital again, like $10? So what will be left of even the SENIOR bond of that company? And this is what the "investors" are thinking about the equity value this evening?

The GSE marked to market about $2B of the combined $300B of Subprime/Alt-A securities? Really? You want my subprime bond for $99.33? Do you want fries with that?

I am too old for this shit ... :D

10 comments:

13thgeneration said...

Squeeze kicked off by Ackman covering his short?? I have no idea either.

MTGSPY said...

no, actually I saw earnest buying. The bill millerish kind of thinking.

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=56507

13thgeneration said...

Oh, sorry. I hear Miller lunches at the Capital Grille, maybe I'll head up there and stake his table out, get some tv ears, haha.

gtt said...

That joker Brown was on Tech Ticker saying MBIA was gonna be a six bagger in the next few years. Seriously.

Greenie said...

it already became 3 bagger. What's wrong with another factor of 2?

PCP said...

The more you look under the system's cover, the less individual entities you find. It looks like it's all turtles till the eye can see. I don't think these companies are going to be allowed to fail. Another sham hearing will be held and treasury will have to stand behind them. Everything either unwinds slowly at a considerable pain to the taxpayer or it unwinds in a hurry at a considerable pain to the banker. And the bankers control the levers that unwind the system. What do you think is going to happen?

MTGSPY said...

what do you mean cannot be allowed to fail?

As far as I am concerned from the credit (REALITY) standpoint alone, the losses will hit senior bond of this company so it is sooooooo irrelevant to even mention the equity.

A bailout is just so far out of reach it's not even funny.

PCP said...

People can collectively ignore reality for a long, long time. You are right, the equity is going to end up worthless but the company's guarantees will be transferred to another entity big enough to absorb the impact.

Bailout may seem out of reach but that's exactly what will happen. Historically, governments always stand behind these kind of bubbles and frauds to absorb the losses and transfer the wealth from many to few. When the said government depends on debt issuance to function...well what choice does it have. That's how it works and that's how it is expected to work.

MTGSPY said...

see the sermon just posted.

gtt said...

Greenie - Brown was saying price of MBIA to $40-60 in a couple years, to indicate what he meant by six bagger.