Friday, April 25, 2008

Real Growth down, Paper Growth UP.

April Consumer Confidence is revised down. Big deal, I am the hedge fund guru with unlimited access to capital. Fine, go buy some more DSL stocks. :D

Anyway, back to serious business, look at the way expectation is shaping up regarding inflation in the US. Was shaping up to 20 bps increase from March to April (preliminary) and now up to 30 bps increase from March to April (final). By the way look at the 5-year ahead #s as this is better to gauge TIPs reaction to it.

The 1-yr inflation expectation number is VERY hot, up 50 bps.

Also I don't believe that the Treasury bonds, as of Thursday May 24, 2008, reflected even the preliminary #s as they are of course reacting than anticipating for a couple of months now.

I really don't believe the debate about "more insurance for "further winter chill" versus the conflagration actually happening will dominate the next Fed meeting. It shouldn't in any case.

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