Imho the probability is 100% we go to point #1 from here.
Then 0% probability from point #1 to point #3. It was not always that trivial. A system running into debt deflation can lead to 100% downpayment on a house, which was NOT zero probability going into 2008. (Thus the price of the house is 30% will be whatever it was at the peak!)
There shouldn't be a rush, either. 20-30% downpayment will most likely cause the likeliest future events to be from point #1 to point #2.