Friday, May 23, 2008

Removing MY BRAIN and getting ready for next week TRADEs:




To try predict as accurately as I can, I use the image above and try emulate generic caucasian financial advisors who otherwise are a) lacking any economic understanding, b) cannot perform basic math, and c) not FRIENDS with Ben Bernanke.

So they will react to news, and this time I feel they may react in very straight forward manner:



  • Tuesday May 27: 9 am: Case Shiller, 10 am Consumer confidence -> More evidence home selling season is a bust: Producing a SELL.

  • Wednesday May 28: Durables good at 10 am: Will disappoint as Ben seems to hint lately, but at the same time very likely some guy from Pimco show up on TV, producing a SELL.

  • Thursday May 29: GDP will likely look soft and the engineered inflation number will look tame. Producing a BUY and this is what I call the SuckerTrapper (TM).

  • Friday May 30: Will sell regardless of news, unconditionally right now I'd say 70% chance.
PS:


  • Why does healthcare (UNH, WLP, HUM) stay sick? What is the driving factor behind these formerly high flying "safe" stocks? I am interested in going long but afraid of the SuckerTrapper (TM). Is it political? Unemployment sensitive? Or is it simply a subsidy story?

  • I decided to accumulate puts (at insane prices) of FED and OSTK instead. Beware that they are extremely "mood" sensitive and may cause poverty on your end if you are unable to withstand the possible HEAT and extreme short squeezes, however likely or unlikely at the moment.

I will try to update this call conditionally as new information comes in.

13 comments:

D said...

You are a kerosene and dry ice guy...I am from a similar mold.

The "unknown reason" behind big pharma is likely front-running of pseudo-socialized health care in the US which will destroy the current business model.

In the coming decade there will be tons of money to be made on micro/small cap healthcare/biotech stocks...it will require intensive research to acquire specialized knowledge for those unfamiliar though.

MTGSPY said...

Thank you for the information. That looks possible. If the democratz got into power I am sure Michael Moore would be the secretary of health services:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0386032/

D said...

If you read pick up the book

The End of Medicine

Andy Kessler

Andy is HILARIOUS and makes fun of the business that has made him rich.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4RQURjd4cM

D said...

To clarify what I mean about pseudo-socialized health care, it means crappy government coverage and the wealthy will pay their own way. I envision cost structures similar to how the defense contractors bid:

cost + predetermined profit

douche_bag said...

MTG... you see our friends over in NC today... I sold a couple of my nov 25's to lock in a sick gain im not talking aobut the BACster although it appears to me someone put a large stangle at 40 front month on BACster... huh??? CFC walk away??? I dunno

and no way today should have been so interesting

Gentle ben send you any info???

Oh and I have date with Japanese Girl tonight... I am gonna tell here...Utsukushii can i eat your sushi... we shall see I prefer sashimi with no rice so I thik I have a chance

Greenie said...

I rarely care about the fundamental news for trading....surprised that you think they impact market. A market is a multistate system and any impact of information will be dependent on the current state as much as the information. Where is current state in your forecast?

I think we may see some down on tuesday morning, but then rally for 3 days. Any decline will come after that.

D said...

Failed

Greenie said...

"Greenie, the lady that called u a UK muslim terrorist went bankrupt investing in michigan."

She is a nice lady - just went overboard that time, because they were carrying large load of shorts.

I think Michigan is the leading edge of what is coming to many states in USA. There is no point moving to another state - you feel the same pain twice. I would rather go with your copper pipe idea.

MTGSPY said...

They use fundamental as an excuse yes, and the fundamentals for tuesday and wednesday is setting up to be very awful.

charles said...

Mister SPY or anyone else out there

Just started looking at small bank
TCBK

points are as follows

*1.5bil in loans
*46% portfolio real-estate
*535 mil consumer installments
* only 1.2% loan loss reserves
*have increased lending activities
*terrible geographical location Central and Northern CA


was wondering if anyone had any insight into their mortgage portfolio. Thanks

chalres said...

sorry forgot to add

of the 1.5bil loan total

309 mil are HELOC
84 mil other home equity loans

57 branches are located:
in sacremento fulsom fresno chico Bakersfield and many other cities in central and nor ca

a said...

have heard from a couple of sources that they are conservitive lender TCBK

I was attracted to the central and no.cal location but if they are conservitve underwriters than I will leave them alone

MTGSPY said...

Sorry I was busy all day today working on Reperforming loans - not joking. Very time consuming. Will get back to you on that question. Thanks for the update.