with at least one of these: OSTK, WB, FED.
The right enemy
12 years ago
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The Fade List / The Sheep Brigade: When being evil is not enough :)
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2008
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May
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- Hi OSTK/FED/WB:
- Very good article from Canada about US bubbles.
- Time to get serious
- About DCI
- Remind me of something.
- Removing MY BRAIN and getting ready for next week ...
- I don't know about you, but this is REALLY troubli...
- Yes, you all read the "Close call" over and over :
- Proof that Money is what you TELL YOURSELF you have:
- First and Foremost, I am a COWARD.
- This is how you run an economy.
- GREEN HOLE discovery by CNBC scientists.
- Zero Participation Economy
- What's going on today:
- All out war in the Commodity prices
- American Psyche to explain why ...
- Inflation primers: Pumpkins and Mice
- Important Announcement: Spring Selling Season OFFI...
- Now the monetary news for the day:
- Economic sound bites
- I am so glad I covered the FRE long
- No
- D, meet Monica Bellucci ...
- Cleaning up high beta stocks and ...
- Now studying WB ...
- Subliminal messages.
- Random truths on China decoupling
- Tripling my original DCI positions.
- Is this ...
- Don't fight the Fed.
- Okay.
- Update on Indices Relative values
- If you are not among the Living ...
- Seriously. Plan for next week.
- Have a good weekend.
- Great ideas are like Californian wild fires,
- I have a can of kerosene ...
- Start adding short again on individual names.
- I am retracting any positive comment I have ever m...
- Hank, dont bite the hands that feed you.
- if u close red
- Working hard contacting our Civil Servants!
- Signs of time!
- Is there a good time to buy a house?
- Earnings review today: FNM!!
- A strange newsflash about the state of lending bus...
- More data point about Bear market rallies:
- The secret of Bear market.
- Back to business, was there or was there not credi...
- More on SMN
- More about Surgical Decoupling (as opposed to "Gen...
- Definitive Forecast of the LT-Sell signal from 20 ...
- Another side of consumer credit: cards.
- some cleanup work done at 2pm.
- DSL short squeeze may have failed.
- Update on FRE "game"
- Nasdaq Momo-ism back at full force!
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May
(57)
21 comments:
OSTK has been on a tear lately. I want to short it but am worried whether it is akin to standing in front of a train
With no EPS, how the hell do you put a correct valuation on it?
"With no EPS, how the hell do you put a correct valuation on it?"
How the hell do you indeed?
Plus ... you cannot short OSTK sir. That is a guarantee.
Don't tell you cornered all the OSTK shorts also :-) . First DSL, then FED and now OSTK.. stop hogging all the shares man
OSTK has been cornered for as long as I can remember.
Jesse Livermore would be proud.
Mtg, I know you were looking for WB 30 to enter short...which didn't present. Did you decide to short the hole or what? That is a busted stuck if I ever saw one.
yeah, short the hole 1000 shares. I think this can't be more than C stock price.
Look at the beautiful action on AIG!
vah mister spy...our old friend in charlotte is having a bad day
was wondering if you found out anything about TCBK or if you have any other tasty ideas???
thanks
Nothing for now. Just hold steady, mortgage losses accelerate again from April - May after decelerating in March - April. A ton of modification and reperformance attempts are made accross the board.
did you have luck with your mod attempts?
do you actually call up the homeowner or do you just work with the peeps that hold the paper
I am not a mortgage lender, but more of a mortgage investor and I am working on bulk basis so I don't call people although I would really love to find out what really happened in ground zero.
Now that we are nearly a year into the mod business we have tons of data across MANY cuts and I think this is $$$$$ to those who can use it in terms of predicting re-performance/re-default. I intend to understand it like the back of my hand.
gotcha...so you are building default models to price paper...sounds pretty cool
I hear sambol is looking for a job soon...perhaps he can help you, from what I hear he has extensive risk managment skills
Maybe I'll end up asking him FOR a job. :D
Mtg -
I've seen better looking p*ssy on this blog...what the hell man?
Kitten fetish?
:)
Hah! getting soft I guess. Been working non-stop for several days now, I'd be finding the right "kitten" picture to post once the work lets up.
how are those default tables coming along? Getting anything good?
Very interesting results. This is like a final exam of my knowledge in the mortgage meltdown. Benchmarking an investment attempt like this is NOT going to be easy :D
Who will you buy the mortgages from? Will you buy individual mortgages or a large number in a pool? Can you buy part of part of a rotten CDO?
Also, how do you model future change in behavior? With recession turning deeper and banks failing, there will be more debt avoidance, isn't it?
Modified loans recently comes in a bulk of 1-time delinquent pools that the lender somehow hope to give to someone else so they can focus on a more dire stuffs like default and foreclosure. I am sorry that the identity of everyone I work with is clearly secret or the spetnatz will go after me. One third of the things we are doing by the way, were already owned by us when we modified them. :)
CDO contains JUNIOR bonds backed by home equity, mortgages, and autos/CC receiveables - multilayer securitization. Their investors do not have direct access to the underlying loans. Further, in the case of synthetic securities (CDS of the Junior bonds), has literally ZERO control of the mortgage underlying their investment.
They are HOSTAGE of the issuer/servicers of those loans.
We stop working securitization in early 2007. The last CDS we bought protection from was the day before BBB spread moved from 200 bps to 400 bps and never looked back (today it's close 5,000 bps).
mister spy
quick question about the CDS on CDO
you say the spread is on 5000bps on default
so with the cds of cdo that is in effect synthetic cdo
and do you know the counterparty you bought the protection from or is it like me selling calls to someone who has no idea who i am they just see me hit their bid
There was no exchange for this you know, so everything was negotiated or was auction. The counterparty didn't understand collateral very well of course, but from what I understood most who dealt with us just tried to get our business and relied on S&P ratings to justify to their management. Up to the very last minute :D
poor basterds...always gotta find the greater fool I suppose
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