Monday, May 19, 2008

Zero Participation Economy

One Note: LEI is NOT a leading indicator. A ratio of LEI to coincident indicator is a much better one. But do take a look at the Negative (red) and Positives (Green) and you'll see what I mean with zero participation.


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7 comments:

D said...

All the would-be participants are busy trolling greenie's blog...

LOL

That sucks for him!

May 19, 2008 at 2:07 PM
MTGSPY said...

Reuters just announced a big job cut citing redundancy. More business reporters added to the unemployed mortgage people and you get a combustible mix of trolls. Yes poor greenie, a bloody yahooesque battlefield littered with the bodies of dead sockpuppets. :D

May 19, 2008 at 2:19 PM
douche_bag said...

MTG... my dad owns a sizeable private biz in so cal... no suprise he has had to layoff people...his competitors have done the same...CA and FL + NY finance companies make up a large amount of the nations economy

It is just a matter of time and a matter of catalysts

hey PS have you any insight into WB's loan portfolio???

May 19, 2008 at 3:22 PM
douche_bag said...

my bad mtg... just spy... i am way slower than an asian girl... my bad

just went through comments

disregard WB unless you have new "stuffs"... also wouldnt disregard rate hike. I would cheer it... lower consumer costs etc. Just dont think an emergancy rate hike will happen...perhaps a rate hike at meeting

May 19, 2008 at 3:26 PM
MTGSPY said...

What I found is the FARM loans they made during 2007 and many other commercial REIT to replace Single Family origination.

To cost a FARM loan you would need to be able to forecast agricultural prices and I really dont think WB is an agri/weather players. Very soon those would be underwater and cashflow negative for some, especially with less tax breaks doled out in the latest FARM bill due to complained from chicken farmers.

This is like a leveraged SRS but people don't know it yet.

May 19, 2008 at 3:26 PM
MTGSPY said...

Well this is like assailing Wamu, but Wamu was so flashy it was easy - assailing someone who's hiding is much trickier. My guess is the commercial angle. The option ARM angle has been tried without success mostly because the blowup is 2009-2010 when they reset. It's really hard to force this fox out of the hole but when it does there is WM like profit to be had.

May 19, 2008 at 3:28 PM
douche_bag said...

yeah I agree...they are resisting very much... funny they do not take full advantage of "accepting" market... well lets hope their NPA's continue to go crazy...who knows...thanks mtg i do appreciate it

May 19, 2008 at 10:14 PM

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